This is week 43 and many things are going on.
Commodity 2: Oil
I went out of oil on Tuesday morning, because of TACO Tuesday issues. I had a very big bet running and the risk was very high. It was a big mistake, because I didn’t participate in the increasing price that day. So I tried my best to get back in, out and in again but it’s really far behind of possibilities. Doing nothing and holding my bet would have been the best case scenario. Anyway I am back in. The war seems to escalate again, ground troops are going to be moved out of Germany/EU and probably towards the middle east. The US government is not sticking to any constitution or any other law that is in the way between US – Big-oil and the rest of the world. Well, good luck with that super brilliant plan. Betting on oil and a crashing world economy sadly seems to be beneficial now. In my personal opinion, I think it is an fully orchestrated move to save the economy in the western world. And it will probably be successful for the western world, but not for most other countries. But first the stock market crash must come and Oil needs to go the levels that have never been seen before. (150$+)
Stock 5: NVDA
After Nvidia hit the 220$ again I made a short bet at 217$ which is successful so far. AI is not earning enough $ from customers to reason the market capital of 5.208.000.000.000 $ of one company, which provides just microchips. Something is terribly wrong here. Michael Burry thinks it’s shelf depletion of “new” microchips. As one month old (=new) microchips become basically worthless, because
1. they are already old
2. nobody want them any more
That makes them worthless. I can check how much they are worth in the balance sheet (based on 31/1/2026 at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/balance-sheet/
Total assets: 206.803.000.000 $ (= that is market-cap / 25) already a shit ratio.
Current assets:
Inventory 21.403.000.000 $
Finished goods 8.774.000.000 $ (=8 BIL $ ON SHELF) and nobody wants it, means it’s value is ZERO.
That’s one side of the worthless coin. But there are other sides.
Of course the round-tripping issue between around 10 big companies is also a big contributor to this craziness. There are many videos on youtube explaining how it works. It’s basically that you take a loan based on your market cap (more shares on the market!!! shareholders say “COOL I will buy them”) and giving the money to your customers (“Investment”), who give the money back to yourself, and you write it down as profit. It is not clear, if any goods are sold in reality. That’s fraud.
Another reason is, Nvidia is betting on their own stock. Incredible. Giving out more shares, buying them back generates cash flow. In billions of $. WTF. No company can grow like that.
So whats a reasonable valuation?
Turnover is stated as 215B$, but I cannot find a reason for it.
The “real” cash flow per quarter is around 2B$ (quarter to quarter), let’s say 10$B per year with growth involved. Profit might be a level of 3$B – 5$B. Times 25 for a growth stock. Then we have a market cap of 75B$-125$B and a stock price per share of
3,12$ to 5,20$.
To make a short bet at 217$ seems profitable. Time will tell if I am correct. 😉
Numbers
So here are the numbers of week 43.
The profit is back at 555% now (€12774 – €1950 / €1950).