So recently I made bets on Oil in my betting challenge and I would like to go a bit further into the details why I am doing so and what are the details about it.
First of all there is a guy on youtube, which has pretty different explanations about whats going on in contrast to the people of US American government, fox news, general news or otherwise. He might be a bit of a conspiracy guy, but there is always some truth in his sessions. I will not post a link, as it’s difficult to see through his thinking and it’s biased. But I have got some ideas from his channel and that led me to my own conclusions.
He basically states that the US will not win the war in Iran and the middle east (not Iran) will be destroyed. If that outcome will become the truth, then 20% of the global Oil supply will be outside of the market.
Ok what about the thought that the US doesn’t want to win this war?
The blockade of the blockade by Dozy Donald is a good explanation whats the real target of the war. No Oil is coming out of the middle east now. The reason for the blockade officially is no nuclear weapon for Iran, but I think it is to stop the oil supply. Iran’s crazy religious leaders will never agree and the outcome (no oil) is already there.
Ok why are they doing it? Why should oil supply be stopped?
The reason is that the basic US economy is not growing any more. The only thing that is growing is AI, which has no paying end customers. That means, if people are not paying for AI, it is worthless in terms of the capital market. That means there is no growth at all in the economy. And that means recession. But recession cannot happen. People don’t like to accept it and most people are living paycheck to paycheck. Paycheck to paycheck with loans and mortgages means there must be growth to pay interest. Otherwise this will happen:
No growth -> no more “more money” -> no interest payments -> no earnings for big finance / rich people -> stock market crash -> economy crash (not seen for a long time)
OK so how can growth artificially be generated? Growth means higher prices / Inflation should be generated, make everything more expensive?
Just make the one resource more expensive, which is basically adding cost to every product we know. That is Oil and there you have it. That’s why this stuck situation in the middle east war will not be solved. It will stay like that for a long time. It will make poorer countries and poor people suffer from less oil, less growth, less products, even less food options. That is a terrible outlook. I hope I am wrong.
Adding to that is a US that has big resources of Oil, that makes it beneficial for many asset owners of those resources, which are basically living their lives in the western world.
How can you protect yourself?
Bet on oil, bet on energy, bet on food, bet on basic needs of people. And that is what I do now. Damn this stupid idiocracy world.