OMG so this was week 05.
Stock 1: PLS.ASX
Pilbara Minerals is running good, my bet was the right choice. Nothing more to say. The Lithium price in China is going up. So this stock price is going up. I have set the limit to 3$. A good Aussie winner. cheers!
Stock 2: PLTR
Last week I wrote Idiots should finally look like Idiots and price should drop like a stone, because the numbers don’t add up. The only problem was, I was looking like an idiot. The report came out and it was 0,02 cents higher in earnings than expected by the analysts, which has like 0 value for the stock, but the freaks bought it up like there is no tomorrow. Absolutely insane run up to 187,90$. But how can this be? I didn’t stop out. If I didn’t have my other bet, the account would have been crashed by now. But it did not crash. This is the time when you really have to reconsider. Am I right? What’s going on?
So I did some research, again. The numbers still don’t add up. There is a 2$ turnover and a 0,33$ profit per share in a year. The cost of the stock is 187$. To give the investment an amortization, you would need to wait (187/0,33) = 566 years. After that time the investment will make a return. So why are people buying? It doesn’t make any sense.
OK, so first I thought monkeys. But even the dumbest person might read news on the big platforms, which came to a similar conclusion as me that the stock is totally overheated doing a little basic calculation.
Then what else is there?
And then I have scrolled through the comments on some youtube videos of palantir. The video itself looks like a scam, because only positive interview partners are allowed and one particular guy, which is an interview partner in many videos, is looking like he just came out of the pub after having 5 rounds of large beers. That is the scam side to confuse people. The other reason, why people in America buy this stock is FEAR. Fear to lose their job to a software program, which this company is saying, they will achieve. And which ELON and DONALD and PETER (and in this case ALEX) are saying to plan without asking the population.
They do not.
Because if they do that, the American economy and then the worlds economy will crash. Nobody will earn any money and nobody can spend any money and nobody will pay any tax. That is not going to happen.
Then what is Palantir? Basically Palantir software is a data crawler and nice display (which other software can also do) (e.g. QLIK, free pyhton software etc.) and a scam to the government. Because the “smartest” people work in government and you can sell them any expensive snake oil like Donald Trump and many others are doing to get tax payers money into their pockets.
Then what about the fear?
Fear is a killer. Buy buy buy and only that, no rational thinking. No thought. Just sitting at home thinking in panic: “OMG I will lose my job. I have to hedge against it. Buy buy buy”
This is not the only fear. The next fear will be: “OMG the stock price is falling. I have to get out of it and take the profit. Sell Sell Sell.”
Out of this reason, I will guarantee, this stock will drop like a stone. I will stay and I will hopefully stay alive with my bets against it so I can write the result about it here in the blog. I have set the target to 100$, but actually it should be much less (like 30$).
Numbers
So here are the numbers of week 05.
The profit is now down to nothing. The feeling is not nice. But it’s a challenge, accept the risk and hold on. Let’s see what the freaks are doing next week. I am not dead, yet 😉