War & Peace

In times of war money, investments, markets and bets can work out very differently compared to peaceful times. Such as the war between Ukraine and Russia right now, still the economy is not standing still in both countries. I want to check this topic in a very neutral way by different personal views.

You live in the country of the attacker

In my opinion it is quite bad behavior to bring harm to others, but what can you do? I live in the “west” and if the war is not displayed in western news, the worlds economy doesn’t really care about it. Politicians or leaders can manipulate the news, so it becomes important or not. In Russian news you might not hear about any warfare activity unless it becomes a politically important strategy for the leader(s). Until then you hear something like “military safety operation in another country”. Translated it means war and all attacking countries try to confuse everyone with these kinds of gibberish description. But as I discussed in Bets & Outcomes , I would suggest that warfare is a betting pattern. The leader of a country attacks another one to win back more than he bets. In the current case it could be land or respect of the western world. The problem appears when it does not work out and you are about to lose your bet. In fact, the respect has turned out to be totally gone and the country of Russia appears to be quite dumb in the worlds media, even when Russian people have mostly nothing to do with it. Poor Ukraine to be the neighbor of Russia. Of course, Ukraine fights back against this behavior and the outcome is not sure until both sides say “it’s enough”, it is just not the decision of Ukraine. In general the problem with a war is, once it started it’s really not easy to end it. People get injured and killed, infrastructure gets destroyed, it goes for a long time and it is against humanity itself. Further, attacking leaders are not “cool” in their calculation behavior and set monetary value on human lives. In my opinion that is not possible, because nobody knows the future value of a human in an economic way. What if the next Einstein is killed? A big loss! What if next Einstein is leaving the attackers country, because he does not agree with the leader? An even bigger loss and a win for other countries! It has happened to Germany in WW2 where the main reason for the war was wrong calculation by crazy stupid people. I want to argue that this might always be the reason for a war. If that is true it means in any war all sides have losses (costs), which are calculated wrong in the first place. It is a lose-lose situation. With such a bet everybody most likely loses, just nobody told some leaders about it. Or even worse, leaders know, but ignore it. Only seen economically, it is already a stupid operation. Other reasons make it even more stupid!

But what does it mean for you, living in that country?

Sanctions from the West or anyone else might be hard for investments, but it’s not as bad as it appears in the news. You can still invest in things in your own country. Unless the attacked party is not attacking your country and fighting back, many things are just like before. Imports and Exports will be affected, but the resources within the country are not. E.g. in Russia many western companies are gone, so there is a gap of new economy to be filled. That can be done by Russian or non-western investors (Chinese etc.). Maybe the big plan was that Russia wanted to kick out western investors and Ukraine is just the very unlucky affected neighbor? We don’t know, we don’t have all the information. I just hope my russian friends will make it and the stupid war will end soon.

You live in the country of a possible war

If peace is still held, you should check how to put some safety in your investments. By buying or investing into things outside of your country you can enable a safety-net for your life. A fleeing plan might also become important and these would be the things with high priority. E.g. It might not be a good idea to buy a house in a country that’s soon to be target of tanks and bombs.

Another idea is controversial: You could even invest in the (possible) attackers country, because then you might lose less or even win by showing to the attacker that you are on his side. It always depends on the type of investment and many other factors, it’s tricky. This is only about not losing all. If you bet on every horse in the race, you cannot lose all. Many horses will lose, but one horse will always win. Please note that you will definitely lose something with this strategy and there are always safer possibilities for investment in highly regulated countries.

You are in the country of war

This is a very bad situation. If your house and life is at risk to be destroyed by a bomb your investment habits might take another route building a bunker or fleeing the country. In fact, this must be your top priority. All the money or things in the world are worth nothing if you are not alive any more. When the markets are gone there is no more regulation and not much to buy. Unless peace comes back, it won’t be possible to re-establish regulation. Of course there will be “black-markets”, but they have no regulation. Most likely there will be cheating, tricks and crime. Therefore it is not a good idea to stay at this place and the most intelligent action is to flee to a safe place where markets are established and regulated. Fighting might be honored later, but it is your life and the decision is on you. Every war in history has ended so far and once this is the case, you can go back and rebuild the country. For you it doesn’t matter who won the war. Invest in the rebuilding and you can become rich.

You are outside the county of war, in a land of peace

Lucky you, your government or leader can calculate “cool” and no one wants to attack your country. They know that people who are dead cannot pay tax. People who are dead cannot work and cannot build or invent anything. You are alive and have all the chances in the world. Why would you make investments and bets in unlucky or crazy countries? The risk in these countries is higher to lose, therefore the possible outcome (chance) must be higher. Contracts and investments could be worth nothing, suddenly. The currency could crash. You must clearly check if the outcome justifies any bet and what are the true chances, especially if a country is about to become unregulated. Once a country is completely destroyed and it cannot be destroyed more, there is an upside chance. Regulation can come back and everything has to be rebuilt. Then it might be the right time to place a bet.

Please note that I do not support any form of war, military action or other harm against humans, animals or nature, because it is stupid. Stupid things are done by stupid people. If you do or support that, you are stupid. If you want to prove that it is not stupid, show evidence!